Transcript
It’s sweeping through Washington think tanks like wildfire –
A new U.S. intelligence assessment released in December that Iran stopped pursuing a nuclear weapons program in 2003.
“Along comes the U.S. intelligence community to tell us that Iran had a nuclear weapons program… somehow I don’t find that reassuring.”
President Bush’s critics say the National Intelligence Estimate takes the wind out of his campaign to isolate, perhaps even attack Iran.
Hardline opponents of Iran say the NIE proves that at least at one time, Iran’s intent was to build a nuclear arsenal.
The Washington Post reports intelligence agencies concluded Iran was attempting to equip long-range missiles with carry nuclear payloads four years ago…. But stopped.
Even if the NIE’s conclusions prove true – many still wonder whether that intent remains.
President Bush thinks it does…
“Iranians have a strategic choice to make. They can come clean to the international community about the scope of their nuclear activities and fully accept the long standing offer to suspend their uranium enrichment program and come to the table and negotiate or continue upon a path of isolation.”
Meanwhile, Tehran seems content to exploit the rift between bush and his intelligence agencies.
"These comments are not new. The point is that an official American organization announced today that Iran does not have any un-peaceful activities. This is what they have confirmed themselves."
"Iran is a peaceful nuclear country now and they have all accepted Iran as a nuclear country and have announced they will tolerate a nuclear Iran."
Russia has accepted Iran’s nuclear intentions and is one of its biggest supporters.
It is shipping nuclear fuel rods to a power plant in the Iranian port city of Bushehr, giving Iran nuclear-powered electricity – without sharing high-grade enrichment techniques.
Still, one of the loudest skeptics about the report is Israel – who Ahmedinejad has suggested should be “wiped off the map.”
Defense minister Ehud Barak claims Israeli intelligence confirms Iran is still pursuing the bomb.
This synchronizes with claims by an Iranian opposition group in exile who say Iran restarted its program after a short hiatus in 2003 – and moved its activities to different locations.
With a such varied conclusions on the NIE, and lessons from the Iraq war, it’s unlikely Americans would ever support a military invasion because of an alleged weapons program.
Some believe such actions may not be necessary.
“I think regime change in terms of toppling the regime and bringing in a new one is a false hope. People have talked about it ever since the Islamic regime has come into power. I don’t think anyone has come up with an idea that will work nor will. The question is can you change the regime’s policy. The news is that with the NIE they are susceptible to international pressure and that is the good news here.”
International pressure may be stepping up. In early 2008, the United Nations will be taking a fresh look at sanctions against Iran – linking them to foreign terrorist funding, not nuclear weapons.
The international community – even Russia and china – seem intent to force Iran to be more transparent about its intentions.
